Although India-US relations have strengthened significantly in recent years, partly because of the security situation in the region, the Indian policy establishment would have to be prepared to protect India's interests in a world that could get more unpredictable.
After startups and Big Tech, the layoff season may have begun at the $245 billion Indian information-technology (IT) industry. Bengaluru-based IT major Wipro is looking to cut hundreds of jobs, targeting mid-level employees working onsite as the company looks to improve margins, according to a media report, citing two sources. The company has said it is aligning its business and talent to the changing market environment.
India appears poised to sustain its growth in a more durable way than before with the economy carrying the momentum from FY23 into the current fiscal year, the Annual Economic Review for 2022-23 released by the finance ministry on Thursday said. However, the report cautioned that escalation of geopolitical stress, enhanced volatility in global financial systems, sharp price correction in global stock markets, a high magnitude of El-Nino impact, and modest trade activity and FDI inflows, are factors that could constrain the pace of growth. "Should these developments deepen and dampen growth in the subsequent quarters, the external sector may challenge India's growth outlook for FY24," the finance ministry said.
'From data on enquiries, we can build what we call a data lake or a data warehouse where data is classified into various cohorts and then we use AI and ML tools to predict demand down the line.'
The RBI raked in a massive net income gain from foreign exchange currency sales as a buffer for the rupee during tumultuous geopolitical upheavals last year owing to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
If a 5% to 10% fall in the equity market gives you sleepless nights, you are not cut out for a 75% to 80% allocation to equities and must reduce it.
'We are cautious only on sub-sectors that have seen massive melt-up during the past six months.'
Vegetable rates may ease from September, led by tomato prices, which have started showing signs of correction on the back of increased supply, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Wednesday. "Looking ahead, the spike in vegetable prices in July is starting to see a correction, led by tomato prices. "New arrivals of tomatoes in mandis are already softening the prices, coupled with proactive supply management in the case of onions.
'Higher valuation remains the only spoiler for equities.'
The Indian Navy, which regards itself as the 'net security provider' in the Indian Ocean Region, has also stepped up to the plate, with a warship stationed at all times off the Gulf of Aden for counter-piracy tasks. 91 Indian warships have been deployed in the region since 2008, patrolling high risk areas where piracy was rampant.
Beijing's political risks are also escalating because of a renewed wave of public anger in many parts of Balochistan against human rights abuses by Pakistani troops deployed to crush the low-intensity insurgency in the province, the report said.
International oil prices retreated from an over seven-year high but was still above $100 a barrel and continue to pose threat to India's inflation rate and current account deficit. While there are no supply concerns as the oil route remained open, consumers will feel the pinch when PSU oil firms start passing on the increase in international rates through a revision in petrol and diesel prices, which have been on a pause for over three-and-a-half-months in view of elections in Uttar Pradesh and four other states. The government is "closely monitoring the situation" and will "take appropriate steps as and when required", a top official said. Brent crude oil surged past $105 per barrel on Thursday for the first time since August 2014, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The Reserve Bank on Friday retained its inflation projection for current fiscal year at 6.7 per cent amid global geopolitical developments triggered by Russia-Ukraine war. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the impact of inflation globally is weighing heavily on the domestic market. For September quarter of 2022-23, RBI projected retail inflation at 7.1 per cent.
The RBI on Wednesday cautioned that while the Indian economy appears capable of weathering the deterioration in geopolitical conditions amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, it faces headwinds from global spillovers from geopolitical tensions, elevated commodity prices and moderating external demand. The RBI, however, did not tinker with the GDP growth projection made in April. It had slashed the GDP growth projection for the fiscal 2022-23 to 7.2 per cent from its earlier forecast of 7.8 per cent.
A yellow glow is likely to stand out amid grey geopolitical clouds in 2023, with gold price projected to touch Rs 60,000 per 10 grams in the Indian market as more investors veer towards safe-haven assets. In a year where volatility was more a norm than an exception, gold prices in the international market oscillated from a peak of $2,070 per ounce in March to a low of $1,616 per ounce in November and is steadily recovering since then, according to market experts. At the beginning of 2022, gold prices were around $1,800 an ounce.
The partially convertible rupee closed at 60.30/31 per dollar compared with 60.28/29 on Friday.
Enthused by higher than expected GDP numbers in the fourth quarter of 2022-23, Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran on Wednesday said India's economic growth may exceed the initial estimate of 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal and the country can look for another year of solid economic performance.
Investors may take a 5 to 10 per cent exposure to silver. 'Have a long-term investment horizon when investing in silver ETFs to ride out short-term market fluctuations.'
On the back of sound macroeconomic policies and softer commodity prices, India's growth momentum is likely to be sustained in 2023-24 in an atmosphere of easing inflationary pressures, said the Reserve Bank's annual report released on Tuesday. It, however, added that slowing global growth, protracted geopolitical tensions and a possible upsurge in financial market volatility following new stress events in the global financial system could pose downside risks to growth. "On the back of sound macroeconomic policies, softer commodity prices, a robust financial sector, a healthy corporate sector, continued fiscal policy thrust on quality of government expenditure, and new growth opportunities stemming from global realignment of supply chains, India's growth momentum is likely to be sustained in 2023-24 in an atmosphere of easing inflationary pressures," it said.
Consumption of gold is the highest among middle-income households - those with annual income between Rs 2 lakh and Rs 10 lakh - who account for an average of 56 per cent of gold sales over the last five years, according to a nationwide survey conducted by India Gold Policy Centre (IGPC) at the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad (IIM-A). "Per capita consumption is highest among the rich, but total volume still rests with the middle-income group. "With increasing income, there is an increasing propensity to consume gold, although the share of gold in the portfolio does not increase with the same proportion of income," the survey report says.
Despite its recent underperformance, gold must be a part of your portfolio.
India is well positioned to continue to be the fastest-growing major economy next year, which may mark the lowest global growth since the millennium began barring the pandemic and the global financial crisis, according to Tata Sons chairman N Chandrasekaran. In his New Year message to around 9.35 lakh employees of the Tata Group, he said increasing consumption, consumer confidence and investment will support India's growth story although the global environment has several risk factors, including the energy crisis in Europe, the battle to contain inflation to avoid recession, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts. "Post-pandemic, India opened up, and we have returned to living our daily lives normally, in a year that saw the nation turn 75 years old.
OSAT majors have concerns about India's ability to provide a stable, predictable, and lasting policy environment for years to come, which is key for making a decision in a capital-intensive business.
Indian economy is projected to grow 7.1-7.6 per cent in the current financial year despite shifting geopolitical realities across the world, a report said on Wednesday. In its India's economic outlook - July 2022 report, leading consultancy Deloitte India said that as 2021 was coming to a close, there was optimism in the air but the optimism received a jolt early this year as a wave of Omicron infections swept through the country and Russia's invasion of Ukraine happened in February. "These events aggravated the pre-existing challenges such as surging inflation, supply shortages, and shifting geopolitical realities across the world with no definite end in sight.
Higher valuation creation in companies beyond the top 100 has given the domestic markets a shot at a $4 trillion market capitalisation (mcap) - a club exclusive to three countries currently. On November 23, the mcap of all BSE-listed stocks finished at a new record of Rs 328.33 trillion ($3.94 trillion), despite the benchmark indices ending with losses. The mcap was propelled by gains in the broader market, including small and midcap stocks - a trend dominant this year.
Global financial markets are not yet fully factoring in any escalation in the Israel-Palestine geopolitical conflict, said Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies in his latest weekly note to investors, GREED & fear. The pertinent point about ongoing events in West Asia from a financial market perspective, according to him, is that, despite much talk about a pending ground invasion of Gaza, no such invasion has yet happened. "This is beginning to make GREED & fear wonder if it is ever going to happen.
Fundraising via initial public offers (IPOs) dropped 52.2 per cent to $147.2 billion in the first eight months of calendar year 2023 (CY23), suggests a recent report by GlobalData, a London-based analytics and consulting company. At the country level, the report suggests, India topped the charts with 152 transactions worth $3.8 billion during this period, primarily due to a higher number of SME IPOs, followed by the US with 99 deals totaling $16 billion, while China ranked third with 88 transactions worth $32.3 billion. "An analysis of GlobalData's Deals Database reveals that there were 750 IPO listings registered with an aggregate deal value of $147.2 billion in the first eight months of 2023 on the stock exchanges worldwide.
The Indian rupee may remain under depreciation pressure on account of plateauing of exports and subsequent widening of the current account deficit, said the Economic Survey 2022-23 tabled in Parliament on Tuesday. It said the "risks to the current account balance stem from multiple sources". The country's current account deficit (CAD) widened to 4.4 per cent of the GDP in the quarter ended September from 2.2 per cent in April-June due to higher trade gap, as per latest data of the Reserve Bank of India.
'We lost our place in being first in the epidemic, when it hit India so hard, but we were actually the epicentre of the epidemic from essentially April 2020, for almost an entire year. We had such high cases. We were the country that had the most mixed response.'
'We like certain stocks from banking, insurance, retail, hospitals and capital goods.' 'Though some of these stocks may seem expensive, they will compound well over the long term, thus justifying their current multiples.'
There have been growing global concerns over China's sweeping claims of sovereignty over all of the South China Sea, a huge source of hydrocarbons.
A massive drone strike on the world's largest crude-processing facility operated by Saudi Arabia's Aramco has driven oil prices to their highest level in nearly four months. The attack has knocked out over half of Saudi Arabia's production as it cut 5.7 million barrels per day or over 5 per cent of the world's supply.
India on Saturday pulled off a big diplomatic win after the G20 summit held under its presidency adopted a consensus declaration overcoming major differences on the Russia-Ukraine war, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi called for ending the "global trust deficit".
'Earnings will be the catalyst for markets to march higher from here on out.'
Have the markets already played out their dynamics before the economy has even properly taken off? Are we now destined for a period of mediocre returns despite a strong economy? asks Akash Prakash.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday projected retail inflation to ease to 5.3 per cent in next fiscal from 6.5 per cent this year on assumptions of lower imported inflation, even though core inflation remains sticky. The RBI's inflation outlook for current fiscal has improved from 6.8 per cent projected earlier, to 6.5 per cent, on the back of steeper than expected decline in vegetable prices and Indian basket of crude at $95 a barrel. "Looking ahead, while inflation is expected to moderate in 2023-24, it is likely to rule above the 4 per cent target.
As United States President Joe Biden prepares for a rare summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, the ongoing wars in Ukraine and between Israel and Hamas set the stage for high-stakes discussions, CNN reported on Tuesday.
Ahead of the end of his term as the Kotak Mahindra Bank's chief executive and managing director, Uday Kotak has said he will be a "non-executive board governance member and a strategic shareholder" going ahead. In the private sector lender's annual report, the last such message from him as the MD and CEO before he relinquishes the position at the end of 2023, Kotak reminisced about the institution's journey, pointing out that Rs 10,000 invested in 1985 is worth over Rs 300 crore today. "Going forward, I see my role as a non-executive board governance member and a strategic shareholder with a long term perspective of nurturing a world class institution," Kotak said in the annual report.
'Calendar year 2023 is going to be big as pessimism takes a back seat.'
In the global context, the country "stands out" in terms of relatively stronger growth and improved economic fundamentals, Raghuram Rajan said.
